So, noone has dared to answer this yet after nearly a month. I'd thus deduce that
We really don't seem to know (and should thus get rid of that close reason to use its slot for something more clear and urgent)!
You are right in that this close-reason seems quite inconsistently used, especially recently. Let's take a look at some examples and how to close them (or if even):
- Why did Kattappa kill Baahubali?
Or, for our Game of Thrones enthusiasts, think of something like
Is Jon Snow really dead?
This is actually hard to decide. For questions like those it really depends on how the question is phrased. Does it encourage answers based on reasonable deduction from the existing material (be that primary or secondary) or if they just invite complete speculation. "Is it ever clarified or is there any evidence for why Kattappa would kill Baahubali?" vs. "What do you think why Kattappa killed Baahubali?". Now without getting into the intricacies of which of the two groups the specific existing question belongs to, it seems that the first group would be on-topic and the second, while off-topic, still doesn't seem to be about "current events" at all so much, rather than just being plain and good old "primarily opinion-based".
Is there any information if Deadpool will break the fourth wall in the 2016 film?
This is a good example of a question that, while probably being exactly (upto even trivially) answerable once one has watched the full movie, still seems to be on-topic in its current form. It is even on-topic now, since it specifically asks for existing evidence. If there are trailers or interviews giving a clear answer now, fine, if there are not, fine, too, wait for the movie then. And for that it got reopened after some improvement.
Why the delay in Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
Why is Hugh Jackman not going to continue to portray Wolverine?
Those are two excellent examples that were on the verge of getting "current events" closed. However they are not about current events at all, rather than genuine production/casting-related questions. Even once Batman v. Superman is finally released, it will still have been delayed, that delay will always be there and doesn't go away once the movie is released, neither do its reasons. The same for the Wolverine question. Even if Hugh Jackman decides to return, he still will have made a decision to leave the role at some point. Revoking that decision doesn't eliminate its original reasons he had. Neither do thsoe two questions invite speculative rumours but sourced explanations.
There are however questions which I agree would fall under the things listed in the help center. While we don't seem to get question about news and sports events and stuff, there can indeed be questions about rumour for "future events", things like:
- When is the next ____ movie coming out?
- Will ____ come back as ____ character in ____?
- Who's going to play ____ in the next ____ movie?
Depending on their phrasing, however, they might even be on-topic if they aren't entirely speculative. But even if they are, they can either fall into existing reasons, like "primarily opinion-based", or be given a custom explanation. A custom close reason for those would also force people to think more specifically about why it is off-topic exactly, instead of smashing a canned close-reason at it that we apparently don't seem to have a perfectly clear understanding of.
So on the bottom line there are very few closed questions that would genuinely deserve to actually be closed as pertaining to "current events" and are not better served by another close reason. And for those things, a properly formulated custom off-topic reason might actually contribute to clarity, compared to a canned one about whose meaning the community seems to be unclear.
Much of my reasoning here is also based on and encouraged by Jon Ericson's answer to this related question, which points out that this particular close reason is very rarely used and the custom close-reason slot (which are of limited supply) it occupies might be put to better use for the much clearer and more frequently encountered class of "recommendation" questions.
So let's get rid of this not very well-understood and inconsistently used close-reason and let's introduce a more often needed and much clearer close reason instead!